Tinubu, APC, Defections: The Fear of Tinubu is the Beginning of Wisdom

Over the last two years, Nigeria’s political scene has been anything but ordinary. Under President Bola Tinubu’s watch, governors, lawmakers, and local officials have flocked to the ruling APC in numbers unseen with previous presidents. 

Even Eno Umo’s recent defection from the PDP to the APC made headlines, showing that both high-profile and emerging politicians are also moving. Seeing entire state leaderships from Delta to Zamfara abandon their old parties feels shocking, even surreal.

Tinubu’s journey began as Lagos governor (1999–2007), where his bold fiscal reforms earned him the nickname “kingmaker.” After helping merge several opposition parties into the APC in 2013, he backed Buhari’s 2015 win. In 2023, voters handed him the presidency, partly because many believed his vision could spark economic revival.

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Strategic Patronage Driving APC DefectionsHere’s where things get complicated. Tinubu doesn’t just promise; he delivers, and he subtly reminds you what happens if you refuse. Take Delta State: In April 2025, Governor Sheriff Oborevwori switched from PDP to APC, praising Tinubu’s national vision.

Almost immediately, his close allies were allegedly linked to federal contracts. Similarly, when Zamfara’s governor, Bello Matawalle, took office in 2021, security deployments and pipeline-vandalism funds for his state increased. Anecdotes like these circulate in Abuja’s corridors: stay out of Tinubu’s club and watch your projects and security resources dry up.

Defection isn’t just about ideology; it’s survival. State budgets often depend on federal transfers for 60–70% of their funding. If you resist Tinubu, you risk delayed funds or even security support.

Rivers State, for instance, grumbled about stalled security votes in 2024 after rejecting Tinubu’s budget. So for many, joining the APC feels less voluntary and more pragmatic.

The “Game” Mindset and Its FalloutTinubu’s camp frequently declares these moves “the game.” He holds grand defection ceremonies complete with speeches and handshakes to signal that loyalty is rewarded. Yet, once labelled a “turncoat,” you risk losing grassroots trust, pushing you deeper into patronage to stay afloat.

Between generous offers and quiet pressures, Tinubu has cemented APC’s grip on power. Unless opposition voices mend fences and rebuild solidarity, defections will likely continue to erode genuine debate and leave Nigeria’s political future hanging in a precarious balance. Will genuine policy debate take centre stage again?