Adam: Poilievre’s loss gives pundits black eyes

Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre speaks to reporters outside of West Block on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Thursday, May 15, 2025. Photo by Spencer Colby /The Canadian PressArticle content

With the minority Liberals now settling into governing and Conservatives trying to make sense of their improbable loss, we can look back at how political pundits called the election so early and so wrong for Pierre Poilievre, and learn what we can from their mistaken call.

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There’s no question 2024 was a banner year for Conservatives. The party had such commanding leads in the polls that no one in their right mind gave the Liberal Party any chance. Conventional wisdom held that the Liberals were heading for a catastrophic defeat, similar to Kim Campbell’s historic loss in 1993 when the Tories won only two seats.

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But what struck me back then was how, long before a single vote was cast in the election, pundits across the media landscape bought into the polls and were calling it for Poilievre.

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Pundits are of course entitled to their views and free to support any party or candidate. But the way many of them threw caution to the wind and anointed Poilievre was bewildering.

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A March, 2024 headline in The Walrus explained “Why Poilievre Will Win.” The analysis asserted that “It’s Pierre Poilievre’s Canada now. That’s what the pundits say. That’s what the numbers say. It’s a brave, perhaps deluded, outlier who will take odds on the Liberal government remaining in power after the next election.”

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This was a full year before the election.

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Here’s another. “It’s not just Trudeau: The Liberals’ days as the natural governing party are done,” a September 2024 column in the Globe and Mail maintained.

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The same month, an Ottawa Citizen column had this headline: “Even Ottawa may not be safe for the Liberals.” The sub-head read: “Pierre Poilievre, in Carleton riding, is ready to pounce.” Then came a stark warning: “Welcome to the apocalypse, Liberals.”

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In January this year, an Edmonton-based online publication called Urban Affairs told Canadians “Why the Liberals in 2025 Could Feel a Lot Like the Tories of 1993.”

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On and on it went.

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There was so much of this kind of punditry, I promised myself that in the unlikely event the Liberals find a way to win, I’ll write this column. That’s why you are reading this.

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I must acknowledge that when many Liberal obituaries were being written, the party was in a death spiral. The Liberals had lost two supposedly safe seats in Toronto and Montreal. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faced significant pressure to resign as the party tanked in the polls. As calls for Trudeau’s resignation mounted, Poilievre’s poll numbers skyrocketed.